http://sports.espn.go.com/stations/player?context=podcast&id=3700262

Bradley talk starts @ 20:30.  Fantasy podcast, but some interesting stats on Bradley and Thigpen.  At one point, Matthew Berry calls KC "the hottest offense in the league right now."  Never thought I'd hear anyone saying that this season!

Again, why do fanposts need to be at least 75 words long?  blah blha balh blah balh a bala blah blah balh balh blah balh

http://www.billsinsider.com/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=16628

Buffalo is alright, I guess, but I don't know that you can classify them in the same "competing for a Superbowl" category as NYG.  If Tony is up for it, though, I wish him all the luck.  Hopefully, something can be worked out that's best for all parties before the deadline.  This is pretty much a lost season at this point.

Why do FanPosts have to be 75 words long?  very annoying.

From the FanPosts.  Thanks to Stag for putting this together.     -Primetime

It recently occurred to me that we had no real follow-up posts to the (in my opinion) fantastically successful 1st annual Arrowhead Pride Community Mock Draft. In that vein, I've compiled a list of the predictions proffered by the astute readers/posters of AP against the actual results of the 2008 NFL Draft.

In the table below, we have the pick #, the original team assigned to pick in that spot (figuring out all the draft day trades and including them seemed too big a headache), the AP prediction, the actual player picked at that #, and the difference between the number of the prediction vs. where the player was actually taken. For example, the "reach factor" for Matt Ryan is -2, since our mock had him going #1, but he actually went #3. (basically, plus is good, minus is bad)

Pick	Original team	AP selection	Actual selection	Reach factor
1	Miami Dolphins	QB Matt Ryan	OT Jake Long	-2
2	St. Louis Rams	OT Jake Long	DE Chris Long	1
3	Atlanta Falcons	DT Glenn Dorsey	QB Matt Ryan	-2
4	Oakland Raiders	DE Chris Long	RB Darren McFadden	2
5	Kansas City Chiefs	DT Sedrick Ellis	DT Glenn Dorsey	-2
6	New York Jets	RB Darren McFadden	DL Vernon Gholston	2
7	New England Patriots	DL Vernon Gholston	DT Sedrick Ellis	1
8	Baltimore Ravens	OT Ryan Clady	DE Derrick Harvey	-4
9	Cincinnati Bengals	OLB Keith Rivers	OLB Keith Rivers	0
10	New Orleans Saints	CB Mike Jenkins	LB Jerod Mayo	-15
11	Buffalo Bills	CB Leodis McKelvin	CB Leodis McKelvin	0
12	Denver Broncos	OT Chris Williams	OT Ryan Clady	-2
13	Carolina Panthers	DE Derrick Harvey	RB Jonathan Stewart	5
14	Chicago Bears	RB Rashard Mendenhall	OT Chris Williams	-9
15	Detroit Lions	OT Jeff Otah	OG Branden Albert	-4
16	Arizona Cardinals	CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie	CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie	0
17	Minnesota Vikings	DE Philip Merling	OL Gosder Cherilus	-15
18	Houston Texans	OG Branden Albert	QB Joe Flacco	3
19	Philadelphia Eagles	FS Kenny Phillips	OT Jeff Otah	-12
20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	WR/RS DeSean Jackson	CB Aqib Talib	-29
21	Washington Redskins	WR Limas Sweed	OT Sam Baker	-32
22	Dallas Cowboys	RB Felix Jones	RB Felix Jones	0
23	Pittsburgh Steelers	OL Gosder Cherilus	RB Rashard Mendenhall	6
24	Tennessee Titans	WR Devin Thomas	RB Chris Johnson	-10
25	Seattle Seahawks	WR Malcolm Kelly	CB Mike Jenkins	-26
26	Jacksonville Jaguars	DE Lawrence Jackson	OT Duane Brown	-2
27	San Diego Chargers	RB Jonathan Stewart	CB Antoine Cason	14
28	Dallas Cowboys	CB Aqib Talib	DE Lawrence Jackson	8
29	San Francisco 49ers	WR Mario Manningham	DT Kentwan Balmer	-53
30	Green Bay Packers	CB Brandon Flowers	TE Dustin Keller	-5
31	New York Giants	LB Jerod Mayo	FS Kenny Phillips	21
32	Miami Dolphins	OT Carl Nicks	DE Philip Merling	-132
33	St. Louis Rams	CB Antoine Cason	WR Donnie Avery	6
34	Atlanta Falcons	QB Brian Brohm	WR Devin Thomas	-22
35	Kansas City Chiefs	WR Jordy Nelson	CB Brandon Flowers	-1
36	New York Jets	DE Quentin Groves	WR Jordy Nelson	-16
37	Atlanta Falcons	OT Sam Baker	ILB Curtis Lofton	16
38	Baltimore Ravens	CB Justin King	TE John Carlson	-63
39	Cincinnati Bengals	DT Kentwan Balmer	OG Chilo Rachal	10
40	New Orleans Saints	LB Dan Connor	CB Tracy Porter	-34
41	Buffalo Bills	TE Martin Rucker	WR James Hardy	-70
42	Denver Broncos	WR Earl Bennett	WR Eddie Royal	-28
43	Carolina Panthers	QB Joe Flacco	SS Marcellous Johnson	25
44	Chicago Bears	OT Duane Brown	RB Matt Forte	18
45	Detroit Lions	DE Calais Campbell	LB Jordon Dizon	-5
46	Cincinnati Bengals	OLB Xavier Adibi	WR Jerome Simpson	-72
47	Minnesota Vikings	OT Anthony Collins	DT Trevor Laws	-65
48	Atlanta Falcons	CB Reggie Smith	TE Fred Davis	-27
49	Philadelphia Eagles	WR James Hardy	WR/RS DeSean Jackson	8
50	Arizona Cardinals	ILB Curtis Lofton	DE Calais Campbell	13
51	Washington Redskins	DT Trevor Laws	WR Malcolm Kelly	4
52	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	CB Tracy Porter	DE Quentin Groves	11
53	Pittsburgh Steelers	OLB Cliff Avril	WR Limas Sweed	-39
54	Tennessee Titans	OG Chilo Rachal	DE Jason Jones	15
55	Seattle Seahawks	TE Fred Davis	RB Ray Rice	7
56	Green Bay Packers	RB Chris Johnson	QB Brian Brohm	32
57	Miami Dolphins	SS Marcellous Johnson	QB Chad Henne	13
58	Jacksonville Jaguars	CB Patrick Lee	WR Dexter Jackson	-2
59	Indianapolis Colts	OG Roy Schuening	C Mike Pollak	-98
60	Green Bay Packers	TE Dustin Keller	CB Patrick Lee	30
61	Dallas Cowboys	WR Eddie Royal	TE Martellus Bennett	19
62	New England Patriots	CB Charles Godfrey	CB Terrence Wheatley	-5
63	New York Giants	DE Jason Jones	CB Terrell Thomas	9

Some random thoughts:

We did pretty well for ourselves, I think, with the first 9 picks, especially given the lag between those picks and the actual draft.

Big props to thatswhatshesaid (#9, Keith Rivers), MAWK (#11, Leodis McKelvin), jimme (#16, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), and primetime (#22, Felix Jones) for being the only 4 posters to hit their picks right on the money. (although, I think that everyone had Felix Jones going to Dallas :)

A lot of reaches in the 1st round for WRs. Perhaps your senses were overcome by the instant impact and undeniable charisma of our very own D-Bowe Show?

Biggest reach would appear to be Carl Nicks at the top of the 2nd. Chris Johnson, Dustin Keller, and Joe Flacco all went way too low.

Jordy Nelson: This pick seemed to cause a ton of hand-wringing in our mock. Cries of "Homer!" and "REAAAACH!" were flung about, but it turns out this selection was pretty much on spot (one higher than where he actually went). Personally, I'm glad we didn't go WR at this pick, but the reaction here on AP was certainly overblown. Now, Martin Rucker, on the other hand, was a reach of Homeric proportions. Apparently, it's all or nothing for MAWK.

What do you guys think?

This post stems pretty much directly from the fanpost by ChiefDJ at http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2008/7/8/567452/debunking-herm-myths-punti.

While I enjoy tables and graphs and such as much as the next stats-obsessed football fan, the raw punt/kick values did not seem to be very meaningful to me.  As mentioned by others in the comments, discussing kicks/punts in terms of possessions should be a more interesting metric of determining whether a head coach REALLY wants to win 6-3 or is just a blowhard (the theory being that a team that scores a lot/is scored on a lot will have an inflated number of kicks/punts due to an increased number of possessions).

Below are some tables that I am hoping will help put the # of kicks/punts in the Edwards and Vermeil eras in better perspective.  I'm still not entirely sure what conclusions can be drawn here, though.  I've also incuded the '07 stats, since throwing out an entire statistical dataset because "we can all agree they were an anomoly" is no way to get published in the PNAS.

Just for reference, the 03-07 numbers came from PFW. I couldn't find an easy to utilize source for possession data from 01-02.

FUM = fumbles lost
INT = interceptions
PUNT = punts
PASS = passing TDs
RUSH = rushing TDs
FGA = field goals attempted
POSS = rough # of possessions (all of the above summed)
PC_PUNT = % of possessions punted
PC_FGA = % of possessions FGA
PC_KICK = % of possessions punted or FGA
PC_NOTD = % of possessions TD not scored
R_whatever = league rank of percentages above
All of the above actions (punting, kicking, not scoring a TD) are considered "bad" for this discussion, so a higher rank (1=best, 32=worst) is always better.

2007
TEAM	FUM	INT	PUNT	PASS	RUSH	FGA	POSS	PC_PUNT	PC_FGA	PC_KICK	PC_NOTD	R_PUNT	R_FGA	R_KICK	R_NOTD
K_C	13	20	96	17	6	27	179	0.53631	0.15084	0.68715	0.87151	30	5	29	31
N_Y_J	6	19	72	15	6	36	154	0.46753	0.23377	0.70130	0.86364	21	32	30	29
2006
TEAM	FUM	INT	PUNT	PASS	RUSH	FGA	POSS	PC_PUNT	PC_FGA	PC_KICK	PC_NOTD	R_PUNT	R_FGA	R_KICK	R_NOTD
K_C	14	12	72	18	17	31	164	0.43902	0.18902	0.62805	0.78659	10	22	13	12
N_Y_J	9	16	74	17	15	27	158	0.46835	0.17089	0.63924	0.79747	19	16	17	14
2005
TEAM	FUM	INT	PUNT	PASS	RUSH	FGA	POSS	PC_PUNT	PC_FGA	PC_KICK	PC_NOTD	R_PUNT	R_FGA	R_KICK	R_NOTD
K_C	13	10	65	17	26	33	164	0.39634	0.20122	0.59756	0.73780	3	28	7	5
N_Y_J	19	15	75	11	10	28	158	0.47468	0.17722	0.65190	0.86709	19	15	17	27
2004
TEAM	FUM	INT	PUNT	PASS	RUSH	FGA	POSS	PC_PUNT	PC_FGA	PC_KICK	PC_NOTD	R_PUNT	R_FGA	R_KICK	R_NOTD
K_C	10	17	55	27	31	23	163	0.33742	0.14110	0.47853	0.64417	1	6	1	2
N_Y_J	5	11	80	19	15	29	159	0.50314	0.18239	0.68553	0.78616	24	27	26	13
2003
TEAM	FUM	INT	PUNT	PASS	RUSH	FGA	POSS	PC_PUNT	PC_FGA	PC_KICK	PC_NOTD	R_PUNT	R_FGA	R_KICK	R_NOTD
K_C	6	12	81	24	32	20	175	0.46286	0.11429	0.57714	0.68000	14	1	5	1
N_Y_J	6	14	72	20	8	32	152	0.47368	0.21053	0.68421	0.81579	17	26	27	15

Again, it's important to emphasize that the possesssion values listed here are very, very rough.  TDs, FGs, punts, and turnovers pretty much tell the story, but you're still letting a few things (safeties, missed 4th-down conversions, etc.) slip through the cracks.

In very short summary...
'03-'05 Vermeil's Chiefs - I think we all remember just how awesome this offense was (1st, 2nd, and 5th most likely to break the endzone on any given possession).

'03-'04 Herm's Jets - Always looking to punt/kick (27th and 26th ranked), but low turnovers keep them in the game (middling 15th and 13th best at scoring a TD). I think these are exactly the kinds of teams people are talking about when labelling Herm as conservative.

'05 Herm's Jets - Just a bad team. Run-of-the-mill kicking numbers, but 34 turnovers. They actually had 19 fumbles lost out of 36(!) total fumbles (most of those from Vinny Testaverde and Chad Pennington).

'06 Herm's Chiefs - This might be the best we can expect from our Chiefs for the next few seasons. Middle of the pack offense, slipping into the playoffs with a little luck. Hopefully fewer turnovers.

'07 Herm's Chiefs - ugh. I'm just going to look forward to next season, rather than dwell on this one.

Any thoughts?